PGR

NYSE

Progressive Corp

Financials·Property & Casualty Insurance

$231.79

$0.05(+0.02%)

Live Market · Nov 11, 2026

Vantage Composite

Paper Trade Compare AI Analysis Thesis Print Report

Mkt Cap$134.3B

Open$230.01

Day High$231.94

Day Low$229.28

52W High$241.02

52W Low$189.20

Volume896K

Avg Vol2.7M

Beta0.23

Workspace Lenses|Alternative research views for PGR

Quick Quote Compare in Screener ScreenerPaper Simulator Options Simulator

Vantage Forecast · Alpha Pro Exclusive

Guest Preview · Proprietary Intelligence Locked

Unlock Multi-Horizon Forward Scenario Forecasts for PGR

Alpha Pro delivers 10D to 1Y predictive projection cones, Monte Carlo statistical confidence intervals, and What-If macro shock simulations for any stock.

10D to 1Y predictive cone projections & drift modeling

What-If interest rate & crude oil shock stress-testing

Historical model calibration & quantitative hit-rate analysis

Cancel anytime · 3-day risk-free guarantee · Institutional quant terminal

PROJECTION TERMINAL

PGRForward Scenario Forecast

Current: $231.79

Multi-factor predictive simulation synthesizing fundamental valuation drift, corporate news sentiment, monetary policy, and geopolitical unrest across 5 target horizons.

Model Conviction:60%

Historical Vol:±25%

Primary Model Catalyst / TailwindSteady Balance Sheet Quality & Sector Industry Tailwinds

Primary Secular Risk FactorMacro Discretionary Demand Softening & Yield Curve Volatility

Select Forward Horizon:

Bullish Case (+1.5σ)

OPTIMISTIC

$257.77+11.2%

Upper tail forecast incorporating positive news catalyst drift, rate accommodation, and strong operating margin expansion.

Base Case (Consensus)

EXPECTED VALUE

$232.33+0.2%

Expected value trajectory synthesized across fundamental multiple drift, news NLP tone, and macro regime expectations.

Bearish Stress (-1.5σ)

DOWNSIDE TAIL

$209.40-9.7%

95% Period VaR:-11.8%

30-Day Momentum Probabilistic Trajectory Cone

Day 0 ($231.79) to Day 30 ($232.33) · 90% Confidence Tunnel

Bullish Case Base Expected Bearish Stress

Predictive Multi-Factor Attribution Matrix

Factor Weights (-100 to +100 Scale)

Company Fundamentals & Earnings+22

Strong earnings expansion & solid margin stability (+22/100)

Corporate News & NLP Sentiment+10

Balanced press release tone and moderate news activity (10/100)

Macro & Fed Monetary Policy+5

Neutral Fed policy stance and balanced Treasury yields (5/100)

Geopolitical & Political Unrest Risk-13

Moderate election cycle uncertainty and headline trade friction (-13/100)

Interactive “What-If?” Scenario Shock Simulator

Stress test PGR against custom political unrest, Fed rate cuts, energy shocks, and headline sentiments.

Geopolitical & Political Unrest:

Federal Reserve Policy Action:

Company News Sentiment Tone:

Quarterly Earnings Surprise Drift:+0%

-15% Big Miss0% Consensus+15% Blowout

Crude Oil / Energy Price Shock:+0%

-20% Plunge0% Flat+40% Supply Shock

Institutional Predictive Modeling Disclosure: Forward scenario forecasts are hypothetical probabilistic simulations generated from historical volatility parameters, multi-factor attribution drifts, and user-specified macroeconomic shock perturbations. Projections do not represent guaranteed returns or investment advice. Actual market prices are subject to extreme non-linear tail risks, liquidity shortages, and unforeseen black swan events.

PGR

NYSE

Progressive Corp

Financials·Property & Casualty Insurance

$231.79

$0.05(+0.02%)

Live Market · Nov 11, 2026

Vantage Composite

Paper Trade Compare AI Analysis Thesis Print Report

Mkt Cap$134.3B

Open$230.01

Day High$231.94

Day Low$229.28

52W High$241.02

52W Low$189.20

Volume896K

Avg Vol2.7M

Beta0.23

Workspace Lenses|Alternative research views for PGR

Quick Quote Compare in Screener ScreenerPaper Simulator Options Simulator

Vantage Forecast · Alpha Pro Exclusive

Guest Preview · Proprietary Intelligence Locked

Unlock Multi-Horizon Forward Scenario Forecasts for PGR

Alpha Pro delivers 10D to 1Y predictive projection cones, Monte Carlo statistical confidence intervals, and What-If macro shock simulations for any stock.

10D to 1Y predictive cone projections & drift modeling

What-If interest rate & crude oil shock stress-testing

Historical model calibration & quantitative hit-rate analysis

Cancel anytime · 3-day risk-free guarantee · Institutional quant terminal

PROJECTION TERMINAL

PGRForward Scenario Forecast

Current: $231.79

Multi-factor predictive simulation synthesizing fundamental valuation drift, corporate news sentiment, monetary policy, and geopolitical unrest across 5 target horizons.

Model Conviction:60%

Historical Vol:±25%

Primary Model Catalyst / TailwindSteady Balance Sheet Quality & Sector Industry Tailwinds

Primary Secular Risk FactorMacro Discretionary Demand Softening & Yield Curve Volatility

Select Forward Horizon:

Bullish Case (+1.5σ)

OPTIMISTIC

$257.77+11.2%

Upper tail forecast incorporating positive news catalyst drift, rate accommodation, and strong operating margin expansion.

Base Case (Consensus)

EXPECTED VALUE

$232.33+0.2%

Expected value trajectory synthesized across fundamental multiple drift, news NLP tone, and macro regime expectations.

Bearish Stress (-1.5σ)

DOWNSIDE TAIL

$209.40-9.7%

95% Period VaR:-11.8%

30-Day Momentum Probabilistic Trajectory Cone

Day 0 ($231.79) to Day 30 ($232.33) · 90% Confidence Tunnel

Bullish Case Base Expected Bearish Stress

Predictive Multi-Factor Attribution Matrix

Factor Weights (-100 to +100 Scale)

Company Fundamentals & Earnings+22

Strong earnings expansion & solid margin stability (+22/100)

Corporate News & NLP Sentiment+10

Balanced press release tone and moderate news activity (10/100)

Macro & Fed Monetary Policy+5

Neutral Fed policy stance and balanced Treasury yields (5/100)

Geopolitical & Political Unrest Risk-13

Moderate election cycle uncertainty and headline trade friction (-13/100)

Interactive “What-If?” Scenario Shock Simulator

Stress test PGR against custom political unrest, Fed rate cuts, energy shocks, and headline sentiments.

Geopolitical & Political Unrest:

Federal Reserve Policy Action:

Company News Sentiment Tone:

Quarterly Earnings Surprise Drift:+0%

-15% Big Miss0% Consensus+15% Blowout

Crude Oil / Energy Price Shock:+0%

-20% Plunge0% Flat+40% Supply Shock

PGR — Progressive Corp

PGR

Unlock Multi-Horizon Forward Scenario Forecasts for PGR

PGRForward Scenario Forecast

30-Day Momentum Probabilistic Trajectory Cone

Predictive Multi-Factor Attribution Matrix

Interactive “What-If?” Scenario Shock Simulator

Progressive Corp (PGR)

4-Factor Quant Rank

6-Factor Fundamental Rating

Source-Backed Financial Highlights

PGR — Progressive Corp

PGR

Unlock Multi-Horizon Forward Scenario Forecasts for PGR

PGRForward Scenario Forecast

30-Day Momentum Probabilistic Trajectory Cone

Predictive Multi-Factor Attribution Matrix

Interactive “What-If?” Scenario Shock Simulator