Rates & Credit
| Indicator | Note | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Yieldfred | Source: FRED (DGS10) | 5.170% | positive |
| 2Y Treasury Yieldfred | Source: FRED (DGS2) | 4.810% | positive |
| 10Y – 2Y Yield Curve Spreadfred | Flat — late-cycle compression | +36 bps | neutral |
| Fed Funds Ratefred | FRED FEDFUNDS (2026-08-01) | 3.63% | neutral |
| IG Credit Spread | Near cycle tights | 96 bps | positive |
| HY Credit Spread | Low stress environment | 308 bps | positive |
Inflation & Growth
| Indicator | Note | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY | Trending down from peak 9.1% | 3.3% | neutral |
| Core PCE YoY | Fed target: 2.0% | 2.6% | positive |
| GDP Growth (Q1 2026) | Annualized, above trend | +2.8% | positive |
| ISM Manufacturing | Below 50 = contraction | 48.7 | negative |
| ISM Services | Above 50 = expansion | 53.8 | positive |
Labor & Consumer
| Indicator | Note | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Ratefred | FRED UNRATE (2026-08) | +4.1% | positive |
| Non-Farm Payrolls | Jun 2026, above est. | +212K | positive |
| Consumer Confidence | Moderating from 2023 highs | 102.4 | neutral |
| Retail Sales MoM | Above estimate of +0.2% | +0.4% | positive |
Global & Currency
| Indicator | Note | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)fred | Calm — risk-on regime | 14.21 | positive |
| DXY (USD Index) | Stable; strong vs EM currencies | 104.8 | neutral |
| EUR/USD | Range-bound post-ECB | 1.0842 | neutral |
| WTI Crude | Below 200DMA; OPEC supply risk | $81.20 | negative |
| Gold | Near all-time high; safe haven bid | $2,328 | positive |
Macro Interpretation
The current macro environment is characterized by resilient growth, moderating but sticky inflation, and a Fed in a data-dependent hold. The inverted yield curve remains a structural drag on financials but equity multiples have re-rated higher on AI productivity optimism and earnings resilience. Credit spreads at cycle tights suggest limited near-term systemic stress. Primary risk remains a re-acceleration of inflation forcing the Fed to delay cuts further than the market anticipates, which would compress growth equity valuations most acutely.
Live macro feed · assembled Sep 29, 2026, 12:24 AM · Sources: FRED, US Treasury, BLS (live)